Konrad kellen
How does this book relate to your own work on terrorism? So the book looks at how important it is to remember that how you end a war is more momentous than what is happening in the midst of it. But if we are to act wisely we must consciously envision the endgame so as to craft a long-lasting political outcome that serves the interests of the state and its people. Our very human capacity to judge costs and benefits is distorted by the passions and sacrifices of an ongoing war. Policy-makers often succumb to wishful thinking, biased estimates, ideological dogma, and bureaucratic in-fighting, failing to think strategically in the midst of a fight. Iklé uses numerous historical examples to explain common problems. His central argument is that how a war ends is vital to its long-term impact upon the world – yet it is difficult for governments to be objective once there has been a great deal of violence.
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What kind of answers does he come up with? Instead, he uses a rich selection of examples from earlier history, including the First and Second World Wars and the Korean War, arranged thematically to explore common challenges in bringing wars to an end.
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But in the original edition he never actually mentions that war.
#KONRAD KELLEN HOW TO#
Iklé’s book is a classic from the 1970s, written during the Vietnam War at a time of agonizing reappraisal in the US, with tens of thousands dying and no concept of how to bring the conflict to a close. Your first book is Every War Must End, by Fred Charles Iklé. repression) combined with deep repulsion and backlash to their brutality among their purported target audience (i.e. ISIS will likely end through a conventional military response by local and regional forces (i.e. This was an experience that Al Qaeda actually warned of and decried. During their campaign, acts of terrorism devolved into full-scale conventional war. The GIA beheaded large numbers of journalists, for example, and slaughtered Jews, Christians, and moderate Muslims. But in its behavior, ISIS appears to me more like the GIA in Algeria, which used horrifying, polarizing violence during the 1990s to intimidate the local population, demonstrate strength, and gain territory. The best way to develop effective counterterrorism is to analyze which pattern fits a group and then take actions that help to bring about that end.Įveryone compares ISIS to Al Qaeda, and of course there are common roots. These six patterns (which are sometimes combined) hold with them the best insights into which strategies succeed, which fail, and why. They are: decapitation, negotiation, success, failure, repression and reorientation. My research demonstrates that there are six classic patterns of endings for a group. Although we have faced some long-lived groups in recent years, the average age of a terrorist group is about eight years.
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Terrorism is an ancient phenomenon and, at its heart, a weak tactic. Why?” Can you tell us, briefly, the answer to that question? Your own book, How Terrorism Ends, opens with the line, “Terrorism campaigns may seem endless, but they always end.